How this conflict has impacted the real estate industry so far.

Every time I sit down to write this newsletter, I think about which topics will best assist you as agents to lead your clients with clarity and confidence. My number one goal is to ensure you are the most informed professionals in the market. Right now, there is no question that the conflict in Iran is at the forefront of every American’s mind. Before we talk business, it’s important to acknowledge that the safety and well-being of our service members are our highest priority. We truly cannot do enough for them, and the entire King Team family sends our deepest love and support to those currently in harm’s way. This week, I want to cover how this conflict has impacted the real estate industry so far and what we should realistically expect moving forward. Let’s dive in…

Impact on the Real Estate Industry up to this point:

The initial strikes and recent escalations have caused national mortgage rate averages to tick back up to the 6.0%–6.25% range. This is an increase compared to the rates we have seen throughout 2026, but a weak jobs report last week helped rates remain stable. The main reason we even saw a slight increase was due to the oil shock we have experienced since the conflict began. Oil prices rose more than 15% within days of the conflict starting (hitting over $90 a barrel), which leads to fears of inflation.

As we all know, mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield and yields rise when inflation is expected. Higher mortgage rates almost always follow. Historically, war causes investors to buy more U.S. bonds because of lower risk, which lowers yields and rates. However, in this conflict, the inflation risk from oil is currently outweighing the demand for safe investments. This is keeping rates higher than they were in January and February. With Iran currently restricting access a vital waterway for oil delivery we are not certain when oil prices will decrease.

The Future Impact on the Real Estate Industry:

The impact on our industry largely depends on the timeline of the current conflict. While we all pray for a swift and peaceful resolution, we must be prepared for two very different market cycles. To help you explain these shifts to your clients, I’ve broken down the likely outcomes of a short-term vs. a long-term conflict in the graphics below:

Ultimately, a short-lived conflict is the outcome we are all hoping for. While the future is never certain, we are staying on top of every market move so you can inform your clients with the best information available. We will keep a close eye on both scenarios and update you as the situation evolves. Please continue to keep our troops in your prayers as they are the true heroes. Have a great rest of your week and I am always here if you need anything.